* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAY AL062020 07/10/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 47 45 42 39 36 32 28 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 43 36 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 38 32 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 4 9 17 30 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 278 246 200 215 219 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.2 22.1 18.4 20.4 8.1 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 89 78 84 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 87 79 72 76 65 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 3 3 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 68 68 73 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 14 11 12 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 71 68 66 82 127 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 49 9 39 89 39 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 19 9 9 67 3 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 37 1 -104 -190 -265 -190 -313 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.9 40.3 41.6 43.5 45.4 49.2 52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.0 73.6 73.0 72.4 70.6 68.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 19 20 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. -25. -30. -34. -38. -39. -39. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.9 74.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062020 FAY 07/10/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 19.9% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.9% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062020 FAY 07/10/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062020 FAY 07/10/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 43 36 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 42 38 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT