* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 82 81 79 73 67 57 46 38 33 28 29 V (KT) LAND 85 83 70 58 49 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 69 57 48 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 8 8 10 19 17 18 19 15 16 18 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 3 6 -3 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 6 SHEAR DIR 243 280 252 262 257 293 284 290 272 268 282 285 247 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.5 24.3 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 144 144 144 137 127 119 114 111 103 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 117 116 115 115 116 111 104 98 96 95 90 76 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.8 -50.2 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 6 9 9 6 8 4 7 3 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 61 59 61 63 61 61 59 62 59 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 33 31 29 27 23 18 15 13 12 16 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -10 2 5 17 17 19 17 3 -22 -46 47 116 200 MB DIV 35 5 22 19 -7 18 20 3 8 2 31 12 61 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 -1 0 4 17 12 23 12 27 10 5 LAND (KM) 88 45 -10 -30 -37 -36 -126 -248 -395 -509 -545 -393 -283 LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.3 34.2 33.9 34.1 34.6 35.5 37.0 39.2 41.6 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.1 77.7 78.1 78.5 79.3 80.3 81.5 82.8 82.9 81.7 78.5 73.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 14 19 21 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 28 15 16 16 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -23. -27. -31. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -24. -29. -33. -35. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -12. -18. -28. -39. -47. -52. -57. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 34.0 76.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 485.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 13.7% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.8% 1.9% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.5% 4.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 0( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 83 70 58 49 36 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 85 84 71 59 50 37 31 29 28 28 29 30 31 12HR AGO 85 82 81 69 60 47 41 39 38 38 39 40 41 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 66 53 47 45 44 44 45 46 47 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 53 47 45 44 44 45 46 47 IN 6HR 85 83 74 68 65 59 53 51 50 50 51 52 53 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT