* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/01/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 47 47 44 42 37 35 34 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 47 47 44 42 37 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 36 38 40 40 41 41 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 17 19 23 24 31 31 39 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -5 -1 -2 0 -5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 266 256 245 237 253 249 277 286 307 315 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.9 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 155 150 147 140 135 130 123 124 120 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 134 136 133 129 121 116 111 105 104 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 47 49 50 54 54 51 53 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 5 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -7 -33 -35 -39 -32 -18 -12 -6 -22 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 15 14 37 23 5 0 -3 0 -6 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 -1 3 10 -4 0 -8 -7 2 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 265 342 339 319 326 525 694 714 724 771 822 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.6 31.3 32.3 33.2 34.8 36.0 37.2 38.3 39.0 39.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.3 77.3 76.3 74.9 73.5 70.2 67.1 63.8 60.3 57.0 53.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 13 15 16 15 14 15 14 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 47 38 23 17 8 13 18 13 12 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 13 CX,CY: 10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -4. -11. -18. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 17. 17. 14. 12. 7. 5. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.8 78.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 194.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 76.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 11.5% 7.0% 3.1% 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 9.3% 6.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/01/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 45 47 47 44 42 37 35 34 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 42 44 44 41 39 34 32 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 39 39 36 34 29 27 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 30 30 27 25 20 18 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT