* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EDOUARD AL052020 07/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 47 47 41 34 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 47 47 41 34 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 43 43 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 28 29 33 37 54 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 222 229 227 229 242 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 21.9 19.7 17.8 15.3 12.7 12.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 93 85 80 75 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 87 80 75 72 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -56.3 -56.5 -56.3 -55.1 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -1.2 -1.1 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 55 52 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 18 18 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 60 65 45 29 -10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 55 61 39 34 27 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 17 24 29 21 13 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 764 691 767 959 1178 1341 688 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.9 41.6 43.3 45.0 46.6 50.0 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.7 48.2 44.6 40.9 37.3 29.2 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 32 32 31 31 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 33 CX,CY: 27/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -3. -14. -24. -32. -41. -49. -56. -65. -71. -74. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 19. 21. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 1. -6. -12. -18. -25. -31. -38. -45. -49. -49. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 39.9 51.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 EDOUARD 07/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.13 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 EDOUARD 07/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 EDOUARD 07/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 46 47 47 41 34 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 43 44 44 38 31 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 38 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT