* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 49 47 44 39 35 31 27 24 23 23 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 49 47 44 39 35 31 27 24 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 36 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 24 29 30 33 35 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 0 1 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 236 248 250 243 238 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.4 25.0 24.0 23.8 22.1 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 110 104 103 93 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 96 101 96 95 85 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 60 59 61 62 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 14 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 21 40 57 80 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 55 28 34 41 58 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 14 40 42 16 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1012 978 926 885 789 687 967 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 35.2 36.5 38.1 39.6 42.6 45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.2 61.9 59.6 56.5 53.4 46.6 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 23 26 29 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 2. -6. -15. -21. -29. -35. -40. -46. -51. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 19. 17. 14. 9. 5. 1. -3. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.8 64.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 7.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 49 47 44 39 35 31 27 24 23 23 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 47 46 44 41 36 32 28 24 21 20 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 42 41 39 36 31 27 23 19 16 15 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 33 32 30 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT