* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 51 50 47 43 38 34 31 27 26 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 51 50 47 43 38 34 31 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 26 31 32 36 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -5 -4 0 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 252 240 249 247 244 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.8 24.1 23.0 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 105 109 104 97 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 95 96 99 95 88 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 61 59 61 61 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 12 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 19 20 36 67 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 36 55 31 33 75 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 14 0 11 28 53 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 962 987 933 889 826 649 716 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.3 35.6 37.1 38.6 41.1 44.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 63.8 61.8 59.2 56.6 50.8 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 21 23 26 26 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -6. -14. -21. -28. -34. -39. -45. -50. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 21. 20. 17. 13. 8. 4. 1. -3. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.9 65.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 51 50 47 43 38 34 31 27 26 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 42 49 48 47 44 40 35 31 28 24 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 44 43 42 39 35 30 26 23 19 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 34 33 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT