* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 49 46 43 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 49 46 43 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 46 42 35 30 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 38 47 50 47 41 51 41 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -4 5 -1 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 257 259 262 257 244 263 267 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.4 22.8 20.6 19.6 20.0 20.7 22.0 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 90 91 80 77 78 80 85 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 80 72 70 71 72 76 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.8 -57.9 -58.2 -58.4 -58.4 -58.0 -57.7 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 58 57 57 59 56 47 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 22 20 18 13 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -14 -3 15 34 45 2 -8 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 63 63 50 27 64 13 -30 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 -1 4 -5 -12 -27 -26 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 497 566 641 721 913 1104 1153 1275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.8 36.8 36.4 35.9 34.5 33.0 31.7 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.5 69.8 68.1 67.1 66.2 64.9 63.9 64.2 63.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 11 9 9 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -23. -32. -38. -44. -49. -53. -58. -62. -65. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -19. -25. -26. -28. -29. -29. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -7. -14. -28. -42. -54. -61. -67. -70. -73. -74. -75. -76. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.8 71.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/19/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 49 46 43 36 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 48 45 42 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 40 33 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT