* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 45 44 38 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 45 44 38 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 40 38 33 29 26 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 30 33 39 38 38 48 43 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 0 -3 5 3 3 1 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 229 242 245 250 263 254 261 277 283 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 23.2 22.9 24.1 23.7 21.9 20.0 20.3 20.5 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 94 92 99 96 87 78 79 79 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 83 81 86 84 77 71 71 71 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.4 -56.5 -57.2 -57.7 -58.1 -58.9 -58.4 -58.1 -57.5 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 65 66 63 59 56 60 46 37 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 23 25 23 20 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -11 -1 2 -3 -6 33 21 -4 -27 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 63 84 39 44 44 40 17 -30 -70 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 18 15 23 -4 0 -19 -39 -30 -18 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 62 104 218 336 435 614 799 965 1118 1205 1277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.5 36.4 36.8 37.1 36.5 35.4 34.1 32.7 31.7 31.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 74.6 73.4 71.9 70.4 67.5 65.5 64.6 64.1 63.6 63.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 12 11 8 8 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 15 CX,CY: 6/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -13. -23. -30. -38. -43. -48. -53. -58. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. -22. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. -2. -12. -23. -32. -41. -44. -46. -48. -50. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.6 75.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.15 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 45 44 38 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 44 43 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 39 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 31 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT