* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 44 47 41 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 44 47 41 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 39 35 31 27 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 26 28 30 33 37 41 40 46 44 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 4 2 1 0 4 0 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 248 238 246 250 259 263 251 273 285 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.7 23.0 23.7 23.5 22.7 20.3 20.1 20.3 20.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 93 97 96 90 79 78 79 81 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 82 86 84 79 72 71 71 73 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -56.5 -57.1 -57.9 -58.4 -58.7 -58.5 -58.1 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 58 65 66 62 58 59 57 40 34 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 22 23 25 20 17 14 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -39 -11 -3 1 -1 13 32 -1 7 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 35 64 66 51 63 24 53 -3 -35 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 22 25 24 25 2 2 -21 -31 -20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 145 78 61 193 343 556 691 871 1025 1189 1365 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.2 35.3 35.9 36.5 36.5 35.8 34.6 33.5 32.4 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.8 76.0 75.2 73.6 72.0 69.2 67.4 65.7 64.6 63.3 61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 12 9 9 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 771 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -3. -11. -20. -28. -37. -42. -46. -51. -56. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 1. -7. -17. -27. -37. -40. -43. -45. -46. -48. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.1 76.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 8.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 44 47 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 43 46 40 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 42 36 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT