* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/18/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 40 42 46 43 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 40 42 46 43 36 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 36 32 28 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 24 23 27 33 39 38 45 42 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 4 6 0 2 4 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 259 248 237 244 260 264 263 264 280 292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.1 23.6 22.2 23.0 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 105 100 96 88 91 76 78 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 94 91 88 84 78 78 69 70 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -56.2 -56.5 -57.5 -58.1 -59.2 -59.1 -59.1 -58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 60 64 67 62 58 59 49 39 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 22 25 21 18 15 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -63 -48 -33 -1 -9 0 12 -17 -41 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 17 39 59 83 67 35 36 13 -32 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 19 23 29 26 7 5 -1 -30 -21 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 188 104 126 211 451 593 703 821 946 1083 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.8 33.0 34.1 35.1 36.0 36.6 36.5 35.8 35.1 34.3 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.0 76.3 75.7 74.5 73.4 70.5 68.3 67.0 65.7 64.6 63.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 8 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -6. -15. -23. -31. -36. -41. -46. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. -1. -5. -12. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 8. 1. -8. -21. -32. -34. -37. -38. -39. -40. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.8 77.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 13.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.8% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/18/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 40 42 46 43 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 38 40 44 41 34 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 40 37 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT