* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 46 51 52 47 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 46 51 52 47 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 47 49 47 42 36 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 14 22 21 32 35 41 45 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 4 -1 2 1 5 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 285 256 244 231 254 256 257 258 280 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.1 25.2 24.6 23.6 24.4 23.3 22.4 19.9 19.6 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 106 108 104 97 101 93 87 77 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 92 94 91 85 87 80 76 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.8 -55.8 -56.0 -56.2 -57.1 -58.0 -58.4 -59.3 -59.3 -59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 60 64 63 62 58 50 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 19 20 24 24 22 17 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -40 -72 -64 -25 0 0 27 11 -34 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 16 24 33 52 45 59 20 52 -25 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 15 15 22 30 18 6 -3 -21 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 299 238 181 110 106 320 482 593 713 806 868 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 32.0 33.0 34.2 35.4 37.0 37.2 36.7 36.1 35.6 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.3 76.8 76.4 75.5 74.6 71.9 69.3 67.5 65.9 64.9 64.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 14 13 12 9 7 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -31. -35. -40. -43. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 2. -5. -13. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 12. 7. -4. -19. -28. -31. -33. -34. -34. -34. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 31.0 77.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.8% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 45 46 51 52 47 36 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 44 49 50 45 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 39 44 45 40 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 36 37 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT