* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 42 47 55 52 46 36 24 23 21 21 20 20 21 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 42 47 55 52 46 36 24 23 21 21 20 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 41 46 50 48 42 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 10 14 15 27 35 42 49 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -3 -1 7 3 2 2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 308 283 265 240 230 250 254 253 266 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.0 24.9 24.7 23.6 23.4 22.6 19.7 19.9 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 105 105 104 96 94 89 76 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 93 92 92 91 84 82 78 68 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.7 -57.5 -57.9 -58.9 -59.0 -59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 54 56 60 68 69 65 62 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 17 20 23 20 17 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -67 -40 -52 -79 -58 4 3 16 27 14 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 24 16 23 31 93 40 63 63 20 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 15 14 19 16 31 14 2 -17 -16 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 308 255 190 96 223 431 534 674 740 737 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.1 34.3 36.2 37.0 37.1 36.5 36.0 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.4 77.0 76.7 76.1 75.6 73.3 70.5 68.1 65.9 65.5 66.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 13 13 12 11 9 6 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 3. -3. -10. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 6. 2. -2. -9. -17. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 20. 17. 11. 1. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.3 77.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.26 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.1% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 42 47 55 52 46 36 24 23 21 21 20 20 21 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 40 45 53 50 44 34 22 21 19 19 18 18 19 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 36 41 49 46 40 30 18 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 42 39 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT