* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ARTHUR AL012020 05/17/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 48 55 58 50 41 28 26 24 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 48 55 58 50 41 28 26 24 23 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 48 53 52 44 36 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 4 6 7 14 24 35 42 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -2 3 2 0 1 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 342 337 296 265 226 245 259 263 257 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.5 25.3 25.4 24.9 23.8 24.8 21.8 14.2 14.3 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 109 107 108 105 98 104 84 64 64 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 94 93 93 91 86 89 73 61 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -56.2 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -57.4 -58.2 -58.7 -59.3 -59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.9 0.0 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 54 58 66 67 64 58 53 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 18 22 23 18 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -55 -32 -39 -65 -54 -4 -8 -2 2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -5 21 14 28 39 45 67 45 32 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 8 13 16 14 35 27 21 22 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 314 339 296 235 192 131 323 402 400 422 474 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.6 31.4 32.3 33.1 35.2 37.1 37.8 38.2 38.2 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.7 77.3 76.9 76.5 76.0 74.4 71.8 69.8 68.8 68.0 67.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 11 13 11 6 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 10 CX,CY: 3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -2. -9. -17. -21. -25. -29. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. 2. 5. 7. 1. -4. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 13. 20. 23. 15. 6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.7 77.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.6% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ARTHUR 05/17/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 48 55 58 50 41 28 26 24 23 22 22 23 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 45 52 55 47 38 25 23 21 20 19 19 20 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 40 47 50 42 33 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 33 40 43 35 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT