* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012020 05/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 49 54 50 39 30 29 27 26 25 24 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 49 54 50 39 30 29 27 26 25 24 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 34 38 45 48 43 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 4 2 15 17 29 39 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 0 2 0 -2 7 3 5 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 307 347 348 276 233 241 247 256 256 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 25.0 25.5 25.3 25.5 24.5 24.1 23.1 13.2 14.1 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 105 109 107 109 102 100 92 64 63 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 92 94 92 93 90 87 80 61 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.4 -56.2 -56.4 -56.9 -57.8 -58.3 -59.3 -58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 51 53 54 61 69 68 63 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 14 13 15 19 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -39 -52 -31 -41 -71 -13 11 7 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -27 -27 -4 22 12 19 61 66 59 69 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 10 8 13 13 17 40 9 1 -3 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 272 334 323 282 222 124 246 374 391 415 450 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.9 30.8 31.6 32.3 34.1 36.5 37.8 38.3 38.3 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.9 77.5 77.2 76.9 76.6 75.4 73.1 70.6 68.7 67.9 68.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 13 14 10 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 11 CX,CY: 6/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 2. -6. -14. -17. -21. -25. -28. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 4. 5. 1. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 19. 24. 20. 9. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.9 77.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ONE 05/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.3% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.4% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ONE 05/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ONE 05/17/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 35 40 49 54 50 39 30 29 27 26 25 24 26 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 33 38 47 52 48 37 28 27 25 24 23 22 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 33 42 47 43 32 23 22 20 19 18 17 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 26 35 40 36 25 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT