* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE AL012020 05/16/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 48 57 59 48 45 44 44 44 44 45 46 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 40 48 57 59 48 45 44 44 44 44 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 46 52 50 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 6 3 5 10 21 31 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 2 5 -2 1 4 1 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 239 276 320 344 237 231 253 256 246 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 24.8 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.3 23.8 20.9 19.7 18.6 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 102 101 103 107 108 98 83 76 72 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 89 88 89 92 94 87 74 69 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.3 -56.2 -56.5 -57.2 -57.8 -58.2 -59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 49 51 55 63 74 68 69 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 15 14 13 15 19 19 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -19 -44 -61 -32 -60 0 43 43 25 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -4 -12 -12 24 7 38 47 95 48 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 9 9 18 7 38 53 59 36 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 161 207 248 307 285 178 102 235 314 359 409 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 8 8 11 15 11 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 5. -0. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. 5. 4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 18. 27. 29. 18. 15. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.0 78.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012020 ONE 05/16/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.36 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.9% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 8.1% 5.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.0% 5.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012020 ONE 05/16/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012020 ONE 05/16/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 40 48 57 59 48 45 44 44 44 44 45 46 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 37 45 54 56 45 42 41 41 41 41 42 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 32 40 49 51 40 37 36 36 36 36 37 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 32 41 43 32 29 28 28 28 28 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT