* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982019 10/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 41 42 41 39 36 32 23 21 19 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 41 42 41 39 36 32 23 21 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 44 46 47 50 51 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 34 34 33 36 41 38 31 35 29 38 51 41 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -1 2 -2 -4 0 1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 221 226 236 230 235 224 244 251 251 273 268 267 259 SST (C) 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 22.1 21.0 18.6 17.5 16.6 15.4 14.4 13.5 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 86 86 87 88 88 85 78 74 71 68 68 67 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 76 76 77 78 77 72 69 66 63 64 63 61 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.2 -54.1 -54.8 -55.5 -56.9 -59.3 -61.0 -60.7 -60.5 -60.0 -59.2 -58.3 200 MB VXT (C) 3.2 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.0 1.7 -0.7 -0.7 0.7 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 49 48 51 55 55 54 54 52 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 17 17 15 14 12 10 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 270 210 175 158 142 138 114 99 51 64 74 57 80 200 MB DIV 48 37 36 48 40 64 32 36 0 0 14 38 51 700-850 TADV -20 -22 -23 -22 -22 -2 41 41 15 65 76 19 36 LAND (KM) 2055 1996 1917 1836 1721 1390 1075 811 791 763 674 683 735 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.0 36.1 36.3 36.7 38.4 40.9 43.6 45.9 47.5 49.2 51.2 52.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.0 31.9 30.9 29.8 28.6 25.2 21.8 19.1 18.2 18.2 18.7 20.1 21.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 12 18 18 14 10 8 10 10 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 0. -9. -17. -25. -36. -44. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 2. -7. -9. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 36.0 33.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982019 INVEST 10/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982019 INVEST 10/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 40 41 42 41 39 36 32 23 21 19 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 37 36 34 31 27 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 31 30 28 25 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT