* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/18/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 46 50 45 46 57 56 57 55 49 44 48 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 0 3 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 265 278 288 288 285 286 293 292 293 304 300 301 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.1 27.1 26.6 24.8 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.2 25.0 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 127 128 123 108 106 102 100 99 104 106 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 115 117 113 101 99 93 90 89 93 93 90 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -55.1 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.8 -56.5 -56.6 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -55.9 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 33 27 26 27 29 32 31 31 33 31 32 29 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -21 -14 -15 -20 -40 -19 -31 -88 -123 -96 -95 -108 200 MB DIV 16 2 13 15 -1 -2 -21 -22 -42 -51 -43 -65 -54 700-850 TADV 1 8 15 29 12 10 4 8 -4 -9 -5 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 681 736 823 933 1082 1354 1709 1852 2075 2248 2167 2075 2040 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.3 26.9 27.5 28.2 29.6 30.5 30.2 28.7 26.5 24.7 23.5 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.4 69.3 68.0 66.5 64.7 60.5 55.2 50.1 46.8 45.7 45.9 46.5 46.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 18 22 23 19 14 11 8 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 15 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -9. -21. -34. -46. -55. -60. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -8. -18. -25. -30. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.9 70.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/18/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/18/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/18/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 33 34 33 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 32 31 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 29 28 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT