* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 20 21 23 28 30 30 31 31 30 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 20 19 23 29 31 31 31 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 16 21 26 26 25 25 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 37 28 24 27 24 25 13 24 28 37 49 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -1 -1 1 -5 -6 0 -5 -7 -7 -8 -1 SHEAR DIR 252 261 270 274 277 284 281 293 276 287 270 272 272 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 146 147 148 148 156 153 147 142 138 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 147 142 142 144 140 145 138 130 126 121 120 120 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 58 55 53 55 57 59 60 60 61 55 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 22 18 19 30 29 36 22 -9 -31 -59 -54 200 MB DIV 9 -5 -14 -1 -3 -8 -24 -20 -22 -23 -37 -36 -35 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -3 -4 0 3 -1 5 4 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 368 247 115 54 72 -4 -48 24 31 22 15 24 -8 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.5 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.7 20.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 62.6 63.8 65.1 66.4 67.8 70.2 71.9 73.1 73.7 74.3 74.7 75.2 75.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 10 8 5 3 3 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 56 67 75 75 71 33 73 80 59 46 41 41 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -14. -19. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.8 62.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 22 21 20 19 23 29 31 31 31 32 28 18HR AGO 25 24 23 22 21 20 24 30 32 32 32 33 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 19 18 22 28 30 30 30 31 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT