* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 20 20 25 29 33 33 34 34 27 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 21 20 21 25 30 34 33 34 35 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 21 19 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 37 31 28 27 21 19 16 15 22 26 46 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -6 -2 -4 -9 -5 -6 3 SHEAR DIR 243 249 248 241 243 277 276 318 308 313 278 274 257 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.5 26.8 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 147 148 149 145 145 147 144 139 130 123 113 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 140 142 142 139 138 137 132 125 117 110 103 99 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 64 62 61 58 57 57 59 62 60 50 44 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 5 4 4 1 850 MB ENV VOR 30 18 16 22 15 12 10 -16 -18 -66 -62 -71 -78 200 MB DIV 18 23 20 20 19 -20 -30 -47 -45 -30 -32 9 52 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 4 -1 2 0 6 10 7 1 7 -3 LAND (KM) 513 416 306 197 74 54 31 144 319 519 726 942 1266 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.7 21.1 22.7 24.5 26.3 28.0 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 61.2 62.1 63.1 64.1 65.2 67.7 69.6 71.1 71.9 71.7 70.3 68.0 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 10 10 9 10 12 16 21 HEAT CONTENT 53 57 60 71 69 72 37 40 50 25 24 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -5. -7. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 4. 8. 8. 9. 9. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 61.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.39 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 21 21 20 21 25 30 34 33 34 35 27 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 21 22 26 31 35 34 35 36 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 21 25 30 34 33 34 35 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT