* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 24 23 25 26 30 32 35 38 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 24 23 25 26 30 32 35 38 40 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 38 30 26 30 34 26 14 11 17 13 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 4 5 6 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 -1 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 245 243 245 234 229 241 235 270 303 329 304 278 246 SST (C) 27.6 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 139 137 134 138 144 142 141 144 140 134 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 128 124 128 136 137 134 134 128 120 114 115 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 5 3 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 66 60 56 51 50 52 57 64 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 5 6 6 9 10 12 11 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 3 10 13 6 -6 -14 -22 -26 -32 -48 1 200 MB DIV 41 32 28 44 43 19 26 -15 -23 -39 -16 -11 15 700-850 TADV 12 8 0 1 -3 6 2 3 0 0 1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 709 717 751 689 633 435 221 244 226 311 384 540 805 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.6 23.8 25.6 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.1 58.7 59.2 59.7 61.6 64.2 67.1 69.5 71.8 73.4 73.9 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 8 7 8 11 14 14 11 11 9 12 20 HEAT CONTENT 35 40 40 40 41 48 43 53 48 52 48 41 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 6. 5. 5. 3. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. 0. 1. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 57.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 23 24 23 25 26 30 32 35 38 40 40 18HR AGO 25 24 23 24 23 25 26 30 32 35 38 40 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 21 23 24 28 30 33 36 38 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT