* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 25 26 27 29 34 35 42 44 42 V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 25 26 27 29 34 35 42 44 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 27 25 23 20 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 43 43 41 36 31 35 29 20 15 15 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 1 3 5 -7 -4 -5 -4 0 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 261 260 249 247 246 228 247 243 254 274 335 327 299 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.3 27.9 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.1 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 138 141 135 133 140 144 143 139 139 139 127 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 136 134 126 123 129 137 135 128 127 127 116 105 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 5 700-500 MB RH 69 70 70 69 66 65 57 54 52 55 55 55 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 4 6 8 10 12 15 14 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -4 1 0 -8 -5 11 10 9 4 -19 -40 -58 -59 200 MB DIV 38 51 59 46 30 47 28 20 1 -19 -19 -11 10 700-850 TADV 9 16 11 7 2 1 9 5 12 3 3 10 12 LAND (KM) 850 795 811 836 770 638 412 191 178 266 395 651 1029 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.2 19.5 20.1 21.3 23.1 25.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 54.8 56.3 57.2 57.8 58.4 59.7 61.9 64.4 66.6 67.8 68.8 69.0 67.5 STM SPEED (KT) 19 14 10 9 8 8 11 12 9 9 11 14 20 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 33 34 34 36 45 45 56 53 42 19 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 880 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 8. 10. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 4. 5. 12. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 54.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 28 26 25 25 26 27 29 34 35 42 44 42 18HR AGO 30 29 27 26 26 27 28 30 35 36 43 45 43 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 26 27 29 34 35 42 44 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 24 29 30 37 39 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT