* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962016 09/18/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 50 60 67 74 75 74 71 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 50 60 67 74 75 74 71 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 47 53 59 60 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 4 11 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 2 -1 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 149 176 161 150 198 245 209 181 182 226 234 231 233 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 128 127 127 125 128 127 125 127 124 119 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 127 124 122 122 121 123 120 112 119 119 114 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 66 60 54 50 49 53 59 62 53 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 15 15 17 17 18 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 102 106 114 118 118 119 124 123 128 100 51 10 -11 200 MB DIV 68 66 80 53 39 47 33 49 52 44 65 34 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 3 3 4 11 14 9 LAND (KM) 354 467 609 747 878 1165 1455 1699 1771 1741 1724 1750 1905 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.2 16.3 15.7 16.2 18.6 21.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.8 23.0 24.2 25.4 28.1 30.9 33.3 34.0 33.7 33.3 33.9 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 13 13 9 2 8 15 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 2 2 4 6 13 18 15 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 30. 40. 47. 54. 55. 54. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.7 20.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962016 INVEST 09/18/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.69 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962016 INVEST 09/18/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 32 41 50 60 67 74 75 74 71 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 29 38 47 57 64 71 72 71 68 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 23 32 41 51 58 65 66 65 62 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT