Real-Time Guidance | DISTURBANCE INVEST 96 (AL96)

Real-time Guidance for DISTURBANCE INVEST 96 (AL96)

This page provides plots and information for DISTURBANCE INVEST 96 (AL96). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle ?

At 1800 UTC, 17 October 2019, DISTURBANCE INVEST 96 (AL96) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 22.6°N and 95.4°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 5 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.

Reconnaissance Aircraft Data ?

No Vortex Data Messages were found for this system.

Plots of track guidance ?

A plot of early cycle track guidance has not yet been generated for this system.
Late cycle track guidance ?
Archive
GFS ensemble track guidance ?
Archive
Experimental late cycle track guidance ?
Archive

Plots from Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) ?

Late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive
Extra late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?
Archive

Boxplot Visualizations for EPS Track ?

A late cycle curve boxplot of GEFS track guidance has not yet been generated for this system.

Plots of intensity guidance ?

A plot of early cycle guidance has not yet been generated for this system.
A plot of experimental late cycle intensity guidance has not yet been generated for this system.

ATCF data files ?

aal962019.dat ?
track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)
bal962019.dat ?
history file (b-deck)
fal962019.dat ?
fixes file (f-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC Miami - U.S. National Hurricane Center

5-day Forecast with Uncertainty Cone
Surface Wind Field
Wind History
Probability of Tropical Storm-force Winds (34-kt)
Probability of Storm-force Winds (50-kt Winds)
Probability of Hurricane-force Winds (64-kt)
Earliest Resonable Time of Approach of 34-kt Winds (Experimental)
Most Likely Time of Approach of 34-kt Winds (Experimental)

Environmental Diagnostics ?

SHIPS diagnostic message ?
Archive

Links to External Satellite-based Products

NESDIS SAB Satellite Imagery for INVEST 96

Visible Imagery Loop   html5   flash
Enhanced Infrared Loop   html5   flash
Water Vapor Loop   html5   flash

CIRA TC Real-time Page for INVEST 96

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)
Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)
AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Winds Analysis (Operational)
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Winds Analysis (Development)

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for INVEST 96

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates   More info ?
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) ?
ARCHER Center-finding Technique ?
ARCHER Eyewall Replacement Cycle Diagnostic and Prediction ?
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC) ?

Observations near INVEST 96

   NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

   Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer