* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 10/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 36 37 37 35 28 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 36 37 37 35 28 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 33 34 34 32 27 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 4 4 6 14 16 20 24 29 30 32 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 8 4 2 -2 2 5 7 11 9 10 1 SHEAR DIR 201 204 203 167 201 210 236 230 244 235 245 249 262 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 142 140 138 140 136 135 128 127 126 123 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 147 143 138 137 133 130 121 118 116 113 114 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 81 81 82 76 76 71 74 70 66 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 18 19 18 12 10 0 -20 -39 -57 -75 -86 -96 -117 200 MB DIV 47 66 92 82 76 99 65 48 46 53 17 26 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1056 1174 1301 1421 1508 1675 1832 1964 1936 1981 2005 2019 2007 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.5 9.9 10.4 10.8 11.5 12.0 12.9 14.0 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.2 28.5 29.8 30.8 32.6 34.2 35.6 36.7 37.1 37.6 38.3 39.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 12 11 8 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 17 19 22 9 5 6 7 4 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 12. 12. 10. 3. -3. -8. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.0 25.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 10/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.89 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 36.5% 22.8% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 20.1% 56.5% 32.9% 22.4% 17.1% 31.9% 36.1% 34.2% Bayesian: 5.4% 65.9% 25.7% 8.2% 3.4% 6.5% 2.7% 5.0% Consensus: 11.0% 53.0% 27.1% 14.5% 6.8% 12.8% 17.4% 13.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 10/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 36 37 37 35 28 22 17 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 33 34 34 32 25 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 28 29 29 27 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 20 21 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT