* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 09/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 39 43 45 50 54 57 55 55 52 50 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 39 43 45 50 54 57 55 55 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 40 44 50 56 56 51 46 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 13 13 9 5 3 4 14 17 24 34 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 9 8 6 8 10 7 8 5 5 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 74 64 62 78 100 101 74 238 252 257 250 229 220 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 134 135 133 131 129 126 120 117 115 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 128 131 129 130 128 125 117 112 108 108 108 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 73 70 72 72 70 68 63 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 19 20 21 19 19 20 22 21 21 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 37 35 37 42 47 29 4 8 16 27 28 200 MB DIV 68 72 47 23 24 -14 14 35 30 23 6 12 42 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -6 -4 2 3 11 15 28 26 29 14 11 LAND (KM) 76 135 194 259 331 562 881 1214 1540 1837 2091 2190 2184 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 17.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 7 9 10 13 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 3 4 6 10 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 13. 15. 20. 24. 27. 25. 25. 22. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 17.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 09/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.9% 16.2% 10.7% 0.0% 12.4% 12.5% 22.4% Logistic: 8.1% 17.5% 11.7% 6.5% 3.3% 6.0% 6.4% 3.7% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 3.7% 5.0% Consensus: 5.2% 13.8% 9.8% 5.8% 1.1% 6.8% 7.5% 10.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 09/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 37 39 43 45 50 54 57 55 55 52 50 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 38 40 45 49 52 50 50 47 45 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 32 34 39 43 46 44 44 41 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 26 31 35 38 36 36 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT