* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/25/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 49 54 58 58 57 57 V (KT) LAND 30 27 27 27 27 27 32 38 44 47 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 27 27 27 30 31 33 35 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 10 10 14 8 7 12 17 20 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 1 -4 -4 -3 0 6 0 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 282 295 264 261 246 216 188 135 52 70 161 183 171 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 167 168 169 157 156 152 154 165 163 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 167 163 164 165 158 161 150 153 168 159 161 159 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.4 -52.8 -53.7 -53.0 -54.2 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 5 4 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 82 83 85 85 83 83 87 82 76 74 78 74 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 79 89 80 59 63 84 75 43 9 20 0 5 200 MB DIV 180 196 175 161 155 91 87 137 121 70 91 33 32 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 6 2 1 1 -5 -6 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 10 -21 -43 -64 -97 -118 158 343 333 111 -124 -15 -24 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.3 12.5 11.2 10.2 10.6 12.9 15.1 15.9 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.4 85.7 88.0 90.0 90.7 90.7 90.3 89.1 88.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 2 4 11 13 7 8 12 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 72 69 68 45 35 10 8 8 16 47 64 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 28. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 83.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/25/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.96 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 173.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.96 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 7.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 34.3% 14.7% 7.3% 5.7% 13.0% 17.3% 21.5% Logistic: 999.0% 32.0% 12.0% 1.9% 1.3% 13.3% 39.5% 44.7% Bayesian: 4.2% 19.9% 3.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.1% 0.8% 4.5% Consensus: 999.0% 28.7% 9.9% 3.1% 999.0% 8.8% 19.2% 23.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/25/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/25/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 27 27 27 27 32 38 44 47 36 30 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 29 34 40 46 49 38 32 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 31 37 43 46 35 29 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 25 31 37 40 29 23 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT