* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 08/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 60 64 66 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 60 64 66 69 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 39 43 47 51 57 63 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 1 2 3 4 8 5 5 6 4 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 1 1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 53 52 16 220 247 257 190 209 170 178 210 248 261 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 132 127 123 120 119 120 117 119 121 124 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 127 121 115 112 110 111 108 110 114 119 127 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 70 67 61 55 52 49 46 44 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 69 57 47 55 61 58 69 76 59 50 54 70 80 200 MB DIV 44 47 43 32 28 29 21 42 48 3 -12 -5 3 700-850 TADV 1 1 5 5 3 -1 2 0 2 5 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 871 1015 1149 1274 1386 1598 1795 1984 2185 2110 1938 1743 1543 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.4 19.2 18.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 26.9 28.1 29.2 30.2 32.1 34.0 35.9 37.9 39.9 42.2 44.7 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 14 7 4 1 4 6 9 9 15 11 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 391 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 29. 35. 39. 41. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 25.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 08/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 08/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 42 49 54 60 64 66 69 71 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 46 51 57 61 63 66 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 45 51 55 57 60 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 36 42 46 48 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT