* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 06/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 42 49 55 55 51 42 34 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 28 27 27 32 38 38 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 24 25 26 30 32 32 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 9 9 15 11 13 14 22 21 19 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 3 0 5 -2 1 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 240 239 269 236 235 248 236 267 261 279 244 269 262 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.2 26.5 25.4 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 150 149 142 135 134 135 130 121 109 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 135 134 128 123 121 123 122 110 95 84 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.5 -52.3 -52.5 -53.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 10 7 10 8 9 6 6 3 9 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 76 77 75 74 70 66 62 57 55 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 11 15 17 21 19 15 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 71 90 90 87 87 89 101 106 111 85 0 -81 -77 200 MB DIV 80 83 82 94 89 74 82 71 84 44 44 14 47 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 4 0 3 3 11 13 10 6 19 LAND (KM) 114 76 53 15 -15 -43 -84 45 282 295 -43 -121 -228 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.2 20.5 22.0 24.1 26.4 29.8 32.4 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 87.3 87.5 87.7 87.8 87.9 88.1 88.1 87.4 85.4 83.0 82.2 81.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 7 9 12 19 17 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 36 33 17 65 51 4 22 10 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 13. 10. 5. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 30. 26. 17. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 87.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 06/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.61 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.55 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 22.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.7% 12.5% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 7.5% 3.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.9% 4.5% 15.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% Consensus: 2.4% 8.5% 5.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.6% 6.1% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 06/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 06/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 28 27 27 32 38 38 31 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 26 25 25 30 36 36 29 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 21 20 20 25 31 31 24 21 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT