* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932016 09/08/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 22 27 34 43 49 55 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 22 27 34 43 49 55 61 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 22 27 32 37 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 22 23 20 11 5 6 3 7 11 24 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 -3 -5 -8 -3 -3 -2 -2 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 262 257 262 275 288 296 355 342 217 251 246 263 269 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.3 29.9 29.2 28.6 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 153 158 164 170 173 168 155 144 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 143 144 145 149 155 159 161 148 132 119 116 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 49 49 47 49 50 51 52 57 61 62 65 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -17 -28 -39 -45 -51 -59 -63 -44 -34 -32 -67 -74 200 MB DIV 11 2 -4 -4 8 1 28 19 0 8 31 -4 1 700-850 TADV 5 4 5 4 2 -5 -4 -1 1 3 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 877 781 673 581 502 441 518 589 814 689 493 421 498 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 22.1 23.4 25.0 27.3 29.6 31.7 33.3 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 57.4 58.3 59.4 60.5 61.7 64.2 66.8 69.6 71.5 72.5 72.7 72.1 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 13 13 14 15 13 12 10 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 41 45 56 64 70 78 56 78 48 56 29 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 36. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 23. 29. 35. 41. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 18.0 57.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932016 INVEST 09/08/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 163.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 16.4% 8.6% 3.5% 0.0% 4.8% 7.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 5.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.0% 1.6% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932016 INVEST 09/08/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932016 INVEST 09/08/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 20 22 27 34 43 49 55 61 64 65 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 21 26 33 42 48 54 60 63 64 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 18 23 30 39 45 51 57 60 61 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT