* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 09/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 36 34 32 28 29 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 36 34 32 28 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 13 16 17 20 28 27 28 26 22 22 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 3 -2 0 0 3 3 4 4 0 SHEAR DIR 289 310 311 297 304 314 330 354 12 34 54 45 39 SST (C) 29.6 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 155 152 155 153 151 151 151 148 151 155 157 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 132 133 129 126 125 126 123 124 126 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 59 61 56 51 48 51 53 48 45 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 4 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -64 -67 -69 -86 -100 -98 -68 -63 -66 -84 -80 -52 200 MB DIV 30 6 10 25 17 4 0 -42 -51 -43 -17 0 25 700-850 TADV -1 2 6 7 7 15 10 8 3 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1026 1082 1095 1035 1035 1102 1174 1282 1424 1524 1457 1394 1312 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.8 29.8 30.9 31.7 32.8 33.2 32.6 31.6 30.6 30.0 29.5 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 66.1 66.3 66.2 65.7 64.4 62.5 60.7 59.5 58.9 59.1 59.4 60.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 10 8 8 8 8 6 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 31 23 19 23 29 26 23 19 22 29 29 29 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 9. 7. 3. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.1 65.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.22 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.8% 9.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 8.9% 4.9% 3.5% 1.3% 4.2% 3.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 7.3% 4.8% 3.5% 0.4% 1.4% 3.0% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 09/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 09/03/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 32 35 36 34 32 28 29 27 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 31 34 35 33 31 27 28 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 27 30 31 29 27 23 24 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 20 23 24 22 20 16 17 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT