* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 10/08/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 44 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 44 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 42 43 41 37 33 30 29 28 29 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 32 26 23 25 26 37 45 36 47 58 41 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -3 -5 1 -6 -9 0 4 4 SHEAR DIR 272 269 278 311 336 354 348 340 308 283 267 252 265 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.2 26.4 25.8 25.7 24.6 24.7 18.4 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 106 109 114 118 119 116 117 109 109 102 105 78 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 91 97 102 103 99 98 91 91 88 92 72 66 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.7 -55.9 -55.9 -56.1 -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -57.6 -58.0 -58.6 -58.8 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 48 47 48 48 54 63 65 59 50 45 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 17 16 14 12 11 9 7 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 59 69 61 51 49 40 24 22 26 20 28 15 -36 200 MB DIV -8 16 15 -15 -33 -31 -23 6 12 21 60 40 44 700-850 TADV 8 20 10 0 3 2 6 7 13 22 20 31 21 LAND (KM) 1894 1887 1840 1750 1649 1481 1403 1333 1254 1093 784 354 -25 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 30.9 31.2 31.8 32.5 33.6 34.1 34.7 35.3 36.4 38.7 42.2 45.9 LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.1 45.6 46.5 47.5 49.9 52.0 53.3 54.1 55.4 57.5 59.7 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 7 10 11 11 7 5 6 11 17 20 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):165/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -20. -30. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -9. -17. -25. -27. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 30.9 44.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.25 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.2% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912019 INVEST 10/08/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 10/08/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 44 45 44 39 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 42 37 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 37 32 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 30 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT