* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912019 09/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 55 60 59 56 56 51 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 55 60 59 56 56 51 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 42 42 40 38 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 4 5 12 14 18 19 24 29 34 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 33 24 9 299 290 214 219 194 207 208 232 229 256 SST (C) 27.7 27.1 26.3 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.0 26.4 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 125 116 112 114 116 114 114 116 113 118 125 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 118 109 105 106 107 104 102 104 102 105 111 111 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 67 66 64 67 61 57 51 49 49 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 19 17 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 89 89 91 85 66 60 39 41 20 18 20 23 -16 200 MB DIV 54 54 75 74 60 58 59 35 35 12 31 13 -12 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -2 2 4 4 9 11 15 20 14 LAND (KM) 1031 1117 1185 1255 1330 1496 1589 1672 1741 1779 1813 1867 1934 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.6 23.1 24.9 27.1 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 27.9 28.5 29.1 29.7 31.1 32.2 33.1 33.8 34.2 34.4 34.5 34.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 5 6 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 0 0 1 4 2 2 8 0 1 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 400 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. -1. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 2. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 30. 35. 34. 31. 32. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 27.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912019 INVEST 09/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.54 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 18.5% 13.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 20.7% 7.9% 1.6% 0.8% 7.0% 12.0% 4.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 3.2% 14.4% 7.2% 3.3% 0.3% 2.4% 4.1% 1.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912019 INVEST 09/02/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 55 60 59 56 56 51 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 40 47 52 57 56 53 53 48 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 34 41 46 51 50 47 47 42 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 32 37 42 41 38 38 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT