* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 56 60 62 52 48 43 39 36 30 25 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 56 60 62 52 48 43 39 36 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 52 53 53 51 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 20 29 43 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 8 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 272 276 254 241 238 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.6 21.3 18.5 13.7 11.0 10.8 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 86 79 72 71 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 83 78 73 70 69 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -57.2 -58.9 -60.6 -60.9 -61.5 -60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 64 69 68 56 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 21 24 22 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 26 43 46 30 -25 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 27 63 96 107 83 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 37 46 43 82 73 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 832 703 632 664 1174 1164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 40.2 41.8 44.2 46.5 51.6 55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.7 48.1 47.5 45.8 44.2 37.2 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 22 26 30 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 21 CX,CY: 0/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. -7. -14. -20. -26. -33. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 31. 33. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 1. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 2. -2. -7. -11. -14. -20. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 38.5 48.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 180.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 96.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/08/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 56 60 62 52 48 43 39 36 30 25 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 58 60 50 46 41 37 34 28 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 53 55 45 41 36 32 29 23 18 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 46 36 32 27 23 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT