* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RINA AL192017 11/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 58 64 55 53 50 47 44 39 34 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 58 64 55 53 50 47 44 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 54 54 53 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 21 22 21 19 36 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 1 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 289 283 271 272 253 234 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.6 22.0 19.9 16.1 14.6 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 94 92 90 82 75 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 80 75 72 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.3 -57.0 -58.6 -59.8 -60.8 -60.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 62 62 69 61 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 20 21 22 24 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 33 39 52 -18 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 18 30 55 81 106 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 29 27 44 39 68 101 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1217 1059 908 769 673 887 1480 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.3 37.9 39.5 41.4 43.3 48.4 53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.1 47.8 46.9 46.0 40.9 33.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 18 20 26 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 17 CX,CY: 3/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -17. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. -6. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 19. 22. 25. 27. 27. 29. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 36.3 48.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 188.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 12.3% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 4.6% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192017 RINA 11/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192017 RINA 11/08/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 53 55 58 64 55 53 50 47 44 39 34 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 56 62 53 51 48 45 42 37 32 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 57 48 46 43 40 37 32 27 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 40 38 35 32 29 24 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT