* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 41 43 45 47 44 39 34 28 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 39 41 44 46 42 37 32 27 20 15 DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 37 37 36 33 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 29 34 41 58 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 13 11 1 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 231 223 224 223 219 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.2 26.1 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 155 151 148 133 122 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 169 151 150 149 133 119 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -52.8 -51.7 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 56 53 46 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 53 78 103 130 209 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 92 116 139 127 103 85 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 12 16 -22 -115 -67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 67 32 52 213 464 427 305 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.8 23.4 25.0 27.1 29.2 34.8 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.4 81.2 80.0 78.0 75.9 71.3 66.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 23 28 31 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 31 32 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 22 CX,CY: 8/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -23. -31. -38. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 10. 12. 9. 4. -1. -7. -13. -18. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.8 82.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.78 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.69 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.7% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.1% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 39 41 44 46 42 37 32 27 20 15 DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 38 40 43 45 41 36 31 26 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 38 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT