* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 54 55 57 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 54 55 57 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 52 53 55 50 38 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 7 6 12 21 28 46 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -1 1 2 0 5 18 15 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 292 295 230 236 252 234 234 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.8 26.4 26.2 24.3 21.8 18.8 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 120 125 122 121 106 93 83 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 103 109 108 109 98 87 79 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 44 43 43 37 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 27 28 30 28 22 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 96 83 102 58 51 31 -32 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 35 14 17 35 29 47 -29 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 -17 -13 -6 17 -11 -69 -191 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 551 618 707 727 807 756 785 1287 1176 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 37.0 37.1 37.5 37.9 39.9 42.8 46.1 49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.6 66.6 64.7 62.0 59.4 52.7 44.8 36.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 18 21 25 31 34 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 7 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -10. -11. -11. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -3. -12. -32. -32. -33. -34. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. -4. -21. -57. -62. -67. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 36.8 68.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 367.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 43.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 54 55 57 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 54 55 57 51 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 55 49 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT