* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 56 53 50 49 46 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 56 53 50 49 46 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 57 55 53 53 51 45 34 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 10 10 10 10 14 20 31 41 68 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 9 5 0 0 1 8 15 28 24 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 317 341 342 309 303 242 242 229 221 229 244 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.8 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.3 24.8 19.4 19.7 16.6 15.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 111 113 116 118 121 110 85 86 79 76 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 93 95 98 102 109 102 80 81 76 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -49.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 57 51 46 44 44 48 35 28 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 31 31 30 29 28 29 29 19 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 1 23 30 65 112 110 54 -5 16 24 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -26 -13 11 29 15 20 43 -14 -7 -24 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -2 -9 2 -5 -36 -57 -99 -203 -154 -197 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 356 413 476 535 587 688 754 643 1131 1311 497 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.5 36.8 37.0 37.1 37.2 37.9 40.0 42.7 45.8 48.8 51.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 70.8 69.9 68.3 66.8 62.0 55.2 47.2 38.2 28.1 17.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 16 24 31 34 37 37 36 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 5 5 3 5 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -13. -26. -39. -39. -39. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -14. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -15. -16. -19. -23. -34. -58. -86. -88. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.5 71.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.74 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 362.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 34.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 11.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 61 56 53 50 49 46 42 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 59 56 53 52 49 45 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 55 54 51 47 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 51 48 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT