* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 106 107 110 112 111 108 101 97 94 87 76 V (KT) LAND 105 104 106 107 110 112 111 108 101 97 94 87 76 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 105 107 106 103 100 94 86 80 74 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 10 10 10 8 6 13 13 12 9 13 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 3 1 -2 1 1 4 -4 -3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 221 215 223 236 230 221 312 303 310 283 295 299 321 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 161 161 159 151 144 140 136 131 126 124 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 141 140 137 127 119 115 111 107 103 102 100 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -49.5 -49.5 -49.1 -49.3 -49.0 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 60 60 58 55 58 62 64 61 61 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 39 41 42 43 45 47 46 46 47 46 42 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 56 48 57 73 82 81 78 87 80 68 65 200 MB DIV 105 75 60 36 45 60 29 31 26 10 7 0 22 700-850 TADV 10 10 10 15 12 5 12 12 8 3 0 -1 6 LAND (KM) 556 630 702 733 732 664 570 498 419 353 299 335 436 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.3 29.6 30.6 31.4 32.3 33.3 34.4 35.4 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.2 72.4 72.6 72.7 72.8 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.1 73.0 72.9 72.2 70.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 6 4 5 4 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 44 45 52 44 31 14 21 25 17 5 22 21 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -22. -30. -37. -42. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 11. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 3. -4. -8. -11. -18. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.0 72.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.06 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 454.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.49 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 11.8% 9.9% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.6% 3.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/23/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 106 107 110 112 111 108 101 97 94 87 76 18HR AGO 105 104 106 107 110 112 111 108 101 97 94 87 76 12HR AGO 105 102 101 102 105 107 106 103 96 92 89 82 71 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 98 100 99 96 89 85 82 75 64 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 88 87 84 77 73 70 63 52 IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 87 86 83 76 72 69 62 51 IN 12HR 105 104 106 97 91 87 86 83 76 72 69 62 51