* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/30/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 88 87 76 55 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 88 87 76 55 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 89 87 85 82 72 57 46 37 30 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 13 20 29 51 50 19 38 71 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 11 9 7 4 4 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 250 245 205 190 191 201 205 257 295 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.8 26.1 26.2 25.3 22.7 17.7 15.2 13.8 12.9 12.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 118 120 113 98 80 74 70 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 111 106 108 104 92 77 70 66 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -50.8 -51.4 -54.3 -56.9 -57.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.3 2.5 2.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 53 46 39 39 48 55 50 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 47 47 46 48 45 42 41 40 27 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 64 86 87 90 83 116 85 73 -20 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 98 97 104 142 133 60 91 24 14 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 27 37 33 20 -40 -62 -68 76 53 32 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2038 1960 1892 1838 1806 1886 1248 665 408 380 277 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 31.6 32.8 34.4 36.0 40.2 46.1 51.4 54.8 57.1 58.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.6 41.4 40.3 38.5 36.8 31.5 24.8 19.9 16.1 13.0 10.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 19 22 26 34 34 25 18 13 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 11 CX,CY: 4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -16. -27. -37. -46. -53. -56. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -18. -18. -18. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -29. -47. -48. -48. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -14. -35. -50. -58. -80.-107.-112.-114. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 30.3 42.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 4.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/30/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 10( 30) 5( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 89 88 87 76 55 40 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 88 87 86 75 54 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 84 73 52 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 68 47 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 39 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 65 44 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 89 80 74 70 49 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS