* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATIA AL132017 09/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 74 76 76 72 68 67 66 66 65 65 65 V (KT) LAND 70 71 74 76 76 55 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 71 71 52 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 5 3 1 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 244 286 26 257 22 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 170 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 154 155 157 155 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 10 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 70 71 70 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 12 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -3 4 -6 -10 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 37 32 35 41 44 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 2 2 3 -4 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 227 206 179 125 70 -68 -182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.8 20.1 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.2 95.4 95.8 96.3 97.4 98.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 63 60 51 38 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -4. -12. -18. -20. -22. -22. -23. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 6. 2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.6 95.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.50 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 158.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 32.9% 21.5% 17.4% 13.9% 20.7% 18.0% 20.2% Logistic: 8.1% 37.0% 27.8% 22.6% 19.0% 21.7% 3.1% 1.3% Bayesian: 1.9% 9.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 6.8% 26.5% 17.3% 13.5% 11.0% 14.6% 7.0% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132017 KATIA 09/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132017 KATIA 09/08/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 74 76 76 55 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 70 69 72 74 74 53 34 28 26 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 68 47 28 22 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 39 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT