* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/27/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 38 38 37 35 34 34 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 38 38 37 35 34 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 15 20 19 19 23 31 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 0 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 347 350 338 340 340 315 291 259 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 135 134 136 134 132 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 116 113 110 110 114 114 113 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 50 45 41 39 40 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 9 8 7 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 0 6 -10 -9 -2 0 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 12 -9 -23 -17 -15 -2 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 0 0 3 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1268 1312 1356 1371 1385 1351 1284 1225 1141 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 59.7 59.2 59.2 59.2 60.1 61.5 63.1 64.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 1 2 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 28 25 24 24 25 21 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 780 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.6 60.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 234.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 10.4% 8.0% 5.9% 0.0% 7.6% 7.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.6% 0.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5% 0.1% 2.9% 2.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/27/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 38 38 37 35 34 34 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 29 31 33 37 37 36 34 33 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 28 30 34 34 33 31 30 30 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 22 24 28 28 27 25 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT