* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 76 78 79 74 69 57 49 49 43 38 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 76 78 79 74 69 57 49 49 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 77 79 80 73 58 47 41 39 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 10 16 16 30 36 50 70 54 39 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -4 2 6 9 12 -3 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 353 325 283 254 247 229 243 231 216 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.0 19.7 17.4 14.4 11.7 10.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 140 138 138 131 85 79 71 65 63 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 120 124 124 126 122 81 74 68 63 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -54.4 -53.4 -51.1 -49.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 -1.9 -1.5 0.9 3.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 10 9 9 6 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 45 41 39 47 52 53 53 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 21 21 23 23 26 24 26 32 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -29 -15 -12 -9 18 85 102 152 215 215 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 40 0 14 64 59 91 115 120 92 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 12 3 7 18 -5 -25 80 95 2 -12 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 456 516 607 660 662 668 559 872 1243 1423 1372 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.5 37.6 39.8 42.6 46.5 50.5 53.2 54.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.8 70.5 69.2 66.8 64.4 57.6 49.0 41.4 36.0 34.0 35.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 19 22 25 32 34 30 21 10 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 8 12 23 25 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -18. -25. -29. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 2. 3. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 4. -1. -13. -21. -21. -27. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 33.1 71.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.22 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 545.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.40 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 16.1% 13.1% 9.5% 8.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.7% 13.0% 8.1% 5.4% 1.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 10.1% 7.4% 5.0% 3.5% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 74 76 78 79 74 69 57 49 49 43 38 18HR AGO 70 69 71 73 75 76 71 66 54 46 46 40 35 12HR AGO 70 67 66 68 70 71 66 61 49 41 41 35 30 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 63 58 53 41 33 33 27 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT