* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 72 73 74 72 68 58 53 47 41 37 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 72 73 74 72 68 58 53 47 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 73 73 73 74 74 71 57 48 42 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 16 16 18 18 27 40 57 55 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 -2 -3 -2 5 6 0 3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 360 354 356 357 279 254 247 238 222 246 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.9 27.6 26.9 21.8 15.5 14.8 11.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 138 137 136 130 93 75 72 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 123 118 120 123 121 88 72 68 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 -1.1 -0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 9 7 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 52 55 54 46 39 50 52 52 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 19 19 20 19 21 21 25 24 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -53 -41 -21 -20 -15 -15 76 119 171 227 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -15 -4 27 15 7 59 76 67 85 61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 6 10 9 8 -37 -20 25 49 25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 592 539 490 479 503 632 628 481 674 998 1130 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.5 32.2 33.3 34.3 36.7 39.2 42.4 46.4 50.1 53.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.2 72.2 71.4 70.6 66.9 60.6 52.4 44.1 39.4 38.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 12 15 24 31 35 30 20 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 35 36 24 7 23 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -5. -12. -19. -23. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -0. -1. 4. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. -7. -12. -18. -24. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 30.8 72.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.17 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.26 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 496.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.45 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 17.6% 14.3% 10.6% 9.5% 13.1% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 11.3% 7.5% 4.6% 4.1% 3.4% 3.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.6% 10.0% 7.5% 5.1% 4.5% 5.5% 4.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 71 72 73 74 72 68 58 53 47 41 37 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 68 69 67 63 53 48 42 36 32 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 63 64 62 58 48 43 37 31 27 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 57 55 51 41 36 30 24 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT