* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 73 74 74 77 74 68 63 54 47 42 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 73 74 74 77 74 68 63 54 47 42 V (KT) LGEM 60 68 73 75 75 74 76 76 64 56 49 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 20 17 17 9 25 36 27 47 67 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 -2 3 2 1 10 13 -10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 1 352 352 350 288 254 264 237 246 236 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.7 26.9 24.2 18.5 17.3 13.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 139 138 137 129 105 81 78 73 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 126 120 121 123 118 97 77 74 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 -54.4 -53.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.5 -1.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 9 8 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 49 54 56 52 45 48 54 50 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 22 21 19 22 24 25 28 30 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -47 -55 -29 -17 -5 20 26 73 108 147 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 10 -22 -8 45 29 71 67 72 137 85 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 2 6 13 -3 -3 -27 -25 77 25 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 645 584 533 518 537 640 621 588 628 1021 1473 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.1 31.9 33.0 34.1 36.7 39.1 41.4 43.8 47.3 51.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.3 72.1 71.9 71.1 70.3 66.7 60.9 53.8 46.2 39.2 32.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 13 16 23 28 30 30 30 29 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 33 37 28 10 23 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -20. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -0. -3. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 14. 14. 17. 14. 8. 3. -6. -13. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 30.2 72.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.50 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.37 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.33 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 463.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.7% 29.0% 24.9% 19.8% 12.6% 15.1% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 15.1% 16.8% 11.6% 8.2% 7.2% 7.7% 5.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 21.8% 6.4% 5.4% 4.4% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 19.2% 17.4% 13.9% 10.8% 7.5% 7.7% 6.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 71 73 74 74 77 74 68 63 54 47 42 18HR AGO 60 59 64 66 67 67 70 67 61 56 47 40 35 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 59 62 59 53 48 39 32 27 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 54 51 45 40 31 24 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT