* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082017 08/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 51 55 57 61 69 66 63 54 45 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 51 55 57 61 69 66 63 54 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 46 50 51 55 61 62 56 50 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 15 17 16 16 12 10 21 40 37 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -3 2 12 -1 5 12 8 SHEAR DIR 54 17 12 21 29 8 6 266 249 254 237 231 230 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.4 23.7 20.8 19.1 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 153 149 147 138 142 140 134 101 87 82 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 130 127 125 118 125 126 121 92 81 77 73 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 12 11 9 8 7 4 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 51 52 57 57 53 45 44 37 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 15 15 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -34 -40 -35 -34 -49 -17 -8 30 56 61 58 39 200 MB DIV 27 17 16 18 14 -3 54 24 104 67 87 94 90 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 2 1 4 0 32 41 29 76 45 LAND (KM) 842 819 723 656 595 510 626 681 668 616 746 1144 1564 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.6 29.4 30.2 31.0 33.0 35.2 37.4 39.5 41.2 42.8 45.0 47.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.9 72.2 72.1 72.0 71.2 69.0 64.7 58.6 52.1 45.4 38.4 31.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 9 12 17 23 26 26 27 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 34 29 28 29 32 30 14 31 24 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. -2. -8. -15. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 26. 34. 31. 28. 19. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.7 71.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.19 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.61 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 288.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.65 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 18.8% 14.7% 9.2% 8.1% 13.3% 15.3% 16.0% Logistic: 12.0% 27.2% 18.7% 11.7% 8.2% 16.2% 19.4% 9.6% Bayesian: 2.2% 3.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.3% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 16.4% 11.6% 7.1% 5.5% 10.1% 12.0% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 EIGHT 08/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 43 47 51 55 57 61 69 66 63 54 45 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 50 52 56 64 61 58 49 40 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 43 45 49 57 54 51 42 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 33 35 39 47 44 41 32 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT