* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILY AL062017 08/01/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 23 25 30 35 40 40 39 36 37 38 V (KT) LAND 25 28 28 29 30 36 41 46 45 44 41 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 25 24 25 27 29 30 31 32 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 13 12 12 20 23 30 34 36 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 301 296 272 269 256 232 248 262 280 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.2 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 156 149 151 154 151 145 139 137 131 128 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 138 131 132 134 131 125 118 117 114 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.1 -54.6 -55.0 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 42 43 43 43 46 48 54 53 52 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 4 8 -4 -32 -52 -47 -57 -26 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 -4 6 22 21 31 30 20 11 -1 -29 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 3 -5 8 -2 -1 -2 -6 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -97 8 119 234 354 346 354 518 716 745 752 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.5 30.2 31.7 33.4 34.7 35.6 36.9 38.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.5 80.5 79.4 78.5 77.5 75.5 72.9 70.3 67.5 63.9 59.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 11 13 13 12 14 17 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 5 35 53 55 31 17 7 9 17 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 3. -2. -9. -16. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -0. 5. 10. 15. 15. 14. 11. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.4 81.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 168.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 80.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 11.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.8% 3.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062017 EMILY 08/01/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062017 EMILY 08/01/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 28 29 30 36 41 46 45 44 41 43 43 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 32 37 42 41 40 37 39 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 34 39 38 37 34 36 36 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 27 32 31 30 27 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT