* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 96 92 85 64 43 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 86 68 60 49 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 105 88 70 69 50 34 29 27 27 28 29 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 29 33 35 39 45 28 13 14 24 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 6 1 -8 1 1 5 7 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 228 229 216 207 208 191 212 260 269 266 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.4 27.8 26.3 25.1 24.3 24.0 23.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 170 171 166 160 135 116 104 98 98 95 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 154 154 150 143 117 98 87 83 84 82 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.8 -50.0 -50.2 -49.4 -48.9 -49.2 -49.5 -50.2 -51.4 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 58 51 46 43 42 46 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 46 46 46 45 42 32 22 18 13 12 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 133 133 126 145 144 143 124 63 39 6 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 62 80 114 114 20 28 14 20 -9 -35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 46 55 73 82 85 43 1 4 10 12 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 33 -7 0 -7 -82 -298 -423 -548 -659 -790 -847 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.8 27.9 29.3 30.7 33.1 34.5 35.6 36.6 37.8 39.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.1 82.4 83.0 83.6 85.5 87.6 88.7 88.8 87.5 85.3 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 13 9 6 6 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 51 50 9 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. -2. -12. -24. -35. -44. -50. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -11. -17. -23. -32. -32. -26. -20. -16. -12. -10. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -4. -16. -30. -38. -46. -48. -54. -55. -54. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -20. -41. -62. -73. -84. -91.-101.-101.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.6 81.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 312.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.4% 0.3% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/10/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 86 68 60 49 34 29 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 105 104 86 78 67 52 47 45 45 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 105 102 101 93 82 67 62 60 60 33 33 33 33 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 84 69 64 62 62 35 35 35 35 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 71 66 64 64 37 37 37 37 IN 6HR 105 86 77 71 68 62 57 55 55 28 28 28 28 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT