* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/03/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 96 97 98 101 101 101 98 101 101 104 105 V (KT) LAND 95 95 96 97 98 101 101 101 98 101 101 104 105 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 95 95 97 99 101 102 100 99 98 98 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 11 11 9 12 11 13 14 16 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 5 4 8 7 5 6 1 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 331 347 1 15 8 354 340 322 291 277 253 247 245 SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 133 136 140 145 150 152 150 151 153 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 127 129 133 139 144 147 145 146 147 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 47 51 50 53 55 58 61 63 67 67 71 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 28 29 29 33 33 35 34 37 38 41 42 850 MB ENV VOR 65 69 80 81 87 88 87 92 86 80 91 74 72 200 MB DIV 10 20 30 38 49 90 44 69 65 65 56 49 39 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -2 -5 -6 -2 2 13 11 22 14 LAND (KM) 1667 1575 1484 1410 1343 1157 983 848 708 448 263 322 333 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.9 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.2 21.4 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.8 48.0 49.1 50.2 52.3 54.4 56.7 59.0 61.5 64.2 66.9 69.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 20 23 24 26 49 46 53 62 62 57 71 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -16. -20. -23. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 8. 7. 10. 10. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 3. 6. 6. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.4 45.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.53 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 689.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.26 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 14.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 3.5% 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 4.9% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.0% 2.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 6.8% 5.5% 0.5% 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/03/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/03/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 95 96 97 98 101 101 101 98 101 101 104 105 18HR AGO 95 94 95 96 97 100 100 100 97 100 100 103 104 12HR AGO 95 92 91 92 93 96 96 96 93 96 96 99 100 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 86 89 89 89 86 89 89 92 93 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 79 79 79 76 79 79 82 83 IN 6HR 95 95 86 80 77 77 77 77 74 77 77 80 81 IN 12HR 95 95 96 87 81 77 77 77 74 77 77 80 81