* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 83 82 81 75 66 53 39 35 36 29 25 V (KT) LAND 80 82 83 82 81 75 66 53 39 35 36 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 85 86 85 74 55 43 36 34 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 18 24 32 43 57 75 58 45 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 1 6 4 8 3 -11 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 295 265 247 244 230 238 237 234 227 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.0 27.1 19.0 15.3 13.3 10.8 10.8 11.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 136 136 130 132 83 75 71 66 62 62 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 121 123 119 122 79 72 68 64 60 59 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -54.0 -53.4 -52.2 -50.0 -50.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -1.8 -1.5 -0.9 1.4 2.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 41 37 37 46 52 53 58 52 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 22 22 25 25 21 18 20 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 4 -1 21 101 131 148 166 181 147 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 33 65 59 68 111 122 91 90 60 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 13 19 7 7 -6 69 81 53 10 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 579 634 636 605 623 449 729 1150 1448 1423 1360 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.5 37.6 38.8 39.9 43.0 47.3 51.4 54.6 55.9 55.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.5 67.3 65.2 61.9 58.7 50.8 43.1 37.5 33.9 32.0 31.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 20 24 28 31 34 31 23 14 4 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 23 26 24 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 16 CX,CY: 11/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -7. -16. -24. -31. -37. -42. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -23. -31. -35. -36. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. -1. -6. -3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -5. -14. -27. -41. -45. -44. -51. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 35.4 69.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.33 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 688.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.27 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 13.5% 11.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 5.6% 3.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 6.4% 4.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 82 83 82 81 75 66 53 39 35 36 29 25 18HR AGO 80 79 80 79 78 72 63 50 36 32 33 26 22 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 74 68 59 46 32 28 29 22 18 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 63 54 41 27 23 24 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 80 82 83 74 68 64 55 42 28 24 25 18 DIS