* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GERT AL082017 08/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 81 81 81 72 63 50 47 46 40 35 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 81 81 81 72 63 50 47 46 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 84 85 83 65 49 41 38 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 15 23 31 50 66 62 44 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -1 5 13 4 -1 -13 2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 333 301 263 246 234 238 237 229 223 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.0 24.8 16.3 15.6 11.5 10.6 10.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 138 138 130 111 78 75 68 63 60 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 122 123 125 120 103 74 71 66 61 58 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -54.3 -52.8 -51.8 -48.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0.7 -2.0 -1.1 0.5 5.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 50 47 41 36 39 49 49 52 54 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 24 23 22 19 21 25 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -13 -9 -1 -9 66 128 155 170 194 208 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 -3 14 53 61 115 90 114 87 78 60 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 10 8 16 3 17 55 73 40 41 -24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 467 591 651 679 634 638 567 973 1327 1472 1488 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.2 36.2 37.3 38.4 41.0 44.8 49.2 53.3 55.4 55.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.1 69.4 67.7 64.9 62.1 54.7 46.3 39.7 35.5 33.5 33.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 17 21 25 28 34 34 28 18 6 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 12 22 26 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -10. -17. -23. -29. -34. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -24. -28. -29. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 0. -4. -2. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. -3. -12. -25. -28. -29. -35. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.1 71.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.16 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 626.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.33 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 15.1% 12.3% 8.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 11.9% 6.7% 3.6% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 9.3% 6.5% 4.1% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082017 GERT 08/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082017 GERT 08/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 77 79 81 81 81 72 63 50 47 46 40 35 18HR AGO 75 74 76 78 78 78 69 60 47 44 43 37 32 12HR AGO 75 72 71 73 73 73 64 55 42 39 38 32 27 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 65 56 47 34 31 30 24 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT